It’s difficult to hit trips on these boards, if nothing else from a combos and blockers point of view. They see a texture that is difficult to hit and think “well, you likely don’t have trips…” And truthfully, they aren’t wrong. If they try to build a huge pot, they are value betting more often than not.Ĭhaotic players look at these spots the opposite way. This isn’t to say that a cautious player won’t fire a continuation bet or peel with a pair – but don’t expect them to throw in many triple barrel bluffs or attempt many double check-raises on these boards.

They get nervous that their opponent could have a monster hand, they will rarely hold a monster themselves, and thus they play carefully and try to keep the pot size controlled. Given that most people are risk-averse on and off the felt, I see more people that approach these paired textures cautiously. While every player is different and the exact way a board pairs can differ – I see essentially two different reactions to board pairs: And given the likelihood of board pairs, there is massive value in prioritizing these textures when studying. The more often something happens in poker, the more important it is that you have a strategic plan of attack for it. A paired river card every 1/4 times you see a river (if the flop+turn was unpaired).

A paired turn card every 1/5 times you see a turn (if the flop was unpaired).

A paired flop every 1/6 times a flop is dealt.

Most players assume that paired flops, or board pairs on turns & rivers, are rare – but those numbers don’t lie. 12 possible pairing cards divided by all 46 possible river cards is 26%.

If the flop and turn are unpaired and you haven’t paired the board either, there are 12 possible cards that can pair the river. The river will pair the board ~26% of the time. 9 possible pairing cards divided by all 47 possible turn cards comes out to 19%. If the flop is unpaired and you haven’t paired the board, there are 9 possible cards that can pair the turn. The turn will pair the board ~19% of the time. How Often Will The Turn Card Pair The Board? And if you hold something in the middle, like 98s, the split is roughly 8.4% for both. If you instead held 43s, the split is 8.7% paired top card flops and 8.2% paired bottom card flops. If your hole cards are higher, like Ace King, the split is 8.1% paired top card flops and 8.8% paired bottom card flops. The 17% number is split between flops where the top card is paired (KK4) and the bottom card is paired (933). Once you remove your two hole cards, there are 19,600 possible flops. The flop will be paired ~17% of the time.

Flopping the wheel poker